
USDA is expected to soon announce details of a second round of trade assistance for soybean, wheat, sorghum, cotton, dairy and pork farmers. Aggregate US agricultural exports to China fell more than 65 percent year over year in August 2018, and soybean exports were down 97 percent in the first two months of the marketing year.
Heavy loss of Chinese demand for US soybeans and sorghum keeps export flows weak and pressures US prices relative to competing origins. Additional aid may ease farm finances but does not restore lost export volume.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.