
The FAO has flagged several Central American countries as at high risk of food and agriculture insecurity due to the expected 2018/19 El Niño. The agency's advisory cites the strong 2015/16 event, which affected more than 60 million people and required about US$5bn in humanitarian aid.
Drought in Central America could cut local maize and bean output and raise import demand for corn, sorghum and rice from the US and elsewhere. The effect is regional but supports feed grain demand from the Americas.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.