
On November 25, a Russian Coast Guard ship rammed a Ukrainian tugboat, and Russian forces fired on Ukrainian navy ships leaving the Kerch Strait, wounding at least six sailors. Russia seized several Ukrainian vessels, and Ukraine declared martial law pending parliamentary approval.
The analysis calls it the first open Russian military attack on Ukrainian forces since 2014.
This is a sharp escalation in the Azov Sea that raises the risk of longer disruption to Ukrainian port access. Markets may treat it as a background risk rather than a direct change in grain supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.