
U.S. negotiators are pressing agricultural trade issues ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 in Buenos Aires. Trump said he could reach a deal but also threatened tariffs on another $267 billion of Chinese goods and a rate increase from 10% to 25% on $200 billion.
The outcome will determine whether China resumes U.S. soybean and grain purchases or faces escalated tariffs, so prices hinge on the talks.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.