
Ships have resumed transit through the Kerch Strait toward Ukraine's Mariupol and Berdyansk ports, which Ukraine says are only partially unblocked. Russia still stops and inspects vessels, nine days after it fired on Ukrainian boats and seized 24 sailors.
Partial traffic restoration limits the disruption to Ukrainian grain flows, but inspections keep shipping slower and costlier. Price impact is modest while the blockade remains uncertain.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.