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Six-month implied volatility for the rand against the dollar has fallen 155 basis points since the start of 2019, as traders price in a comfortable win for the ruling ANC in May elections. Realised volatility has been above implied volatility since September.
Lower expected currency volatility reduces hedging costs for dollar-priced feed imports. The election is a political event rather than a supply or demand shock for feed grains.
moneyweb.co.zaColleen Goko, BloombergJan 21, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
