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J.P. Morgan's Asia Pacific oil head Scott Darling said Brent could fall toward its $55 low-price scenario for 2019 if OPEC does not maintain its output cuts through the full year.
The cuts of about 1.2 million bpd were agreed for an initial six months starting in January.
Whether OPEC sustains its cuts determines whether crude stays supported, which feeds into diesel and freight costs. The view is a conditional forecast rather than a new supply event.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.