
Spot barge rates surged in October 2017 as low water on parts of the Ohio, Illinois and Mississippi rivers closed or restricted navigation. USDA data showed export grain spot rates rising 27 to 50 percent in a single week, with no rain forecast.
Farmers were advised to hold grain until December.
Barge scarcity raises the cost of moving grain to Gulf export terminals and widens the basis at interior locations. Holding back supply from the river market weighs on near-term cash corn and soybean prices while freight costs climb.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.