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An analysis of early prospects for the 2019/20 wheat marketing year expects global wheat stocks to tighten before the next harvest. USDA estimates show a moderate drop in world carryout to about 260 MMT, near a record, but much of that stock is in China and unlikely to reach world markets.
Supplies are expected to fall sharply across the main exporting countries.
A drawdown in exportable supplies would support wheat prices into the 2019/20 crop year. Weather remains the main uncertainty.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.