
Maybank Kim Eng says Malaysia's palm oil stockpile hit a record 3.22m tonnes in December 2018, slightly above estimates. It expects stockpiles to have peaked, and CPO spot prices have recovered above MYR2,000 per tonne.
India's recent palm oil import duty cut is seen as a demand booster for 2019.
Peaking inventories and India's duty cut point to firmer palm oil prices into the seasonally low output period. Strong early-January export shipments support the bullish outlook.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.