
Live and feeder cattle futures fell sharply on Friday, with feeder cattle hitting limit-down moves after a sharp drop the prior session. Traders liquidated long positions over uncertainty about when US imports of Mexican cattle would resume.
USDA Secretary Rollins also announced a new sterile fly dispersal facility in Mexico to fight New World Screwworm.
Delayed resumption of Mexican feeder cattle imports keeps domestic feeder supplies tight, but the lack of a reopening date is driving risk-off selling. Screwworm progress will determine how soon the border can reopen.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.