
USDA estimates 2018/19 US long grain ending stocks at 34.8 million cwt, 60 percent above the prior year and the second highest since 1985. Global rice production, supply, exports, consumption and ending stocks are all put at record levels.
The article links these factors to a wet 2018 harvest and a potentially wet 2019 planting season.
Heavy global and US carry-in stocks weigh on rough rice prices and point to fewer US long grain acres planted in 2019. Lower acreage could eventually tighten supply, but near-term pressure on prices remains.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.