
Dry conditions have hit the Australian sorghum crop, and summer rainfall deficits put the winter crop program at risk through low stored soil moisture. Global wheat prices have eased, with Algeria paying about US$15 a tonne less in its latest tender than in January.
Expected shortfalls in Australian summer and winter grain supply tend to firm local feed prices, while easing world wheat prices cap the feed-wheat premium.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.