USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Censky outlined the three components of the trade mitigation package at the February 22 Agricultural Outlook Forum: market facilitation payments, commodity purchase and distribution, and an agricultural trade promotion program. Censky acknowledged that farmers would rather trade commodities than receive payments.
The package is designed to offset lost export sales rather than replace them, so it does little to restore demand for US soybeans and corn in China.
After 250 past neutral trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.