
USDA's delayed export sales data showed China bought 144 million bushels of U.S. soybeans over the prior six weeks, about 60% of 240 million bushels of old-crop business in that period. Total China commitments on the 2018 crop reached 20% of U.S. sales, far below the usual 60% pace.
Total sales still came in below trade estimates.
Sales running well behind the usual pace leave room for further Chinese buying, which supports U.S. soybean prices. Brazilian and Argentine supplies typically dominate China's second-half imports, which limits how far the U.S. recovery can go.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.