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UMD and Cornell researchers published work in Science Advances showing that regional specialization in rain-fed crops like corn and soybeans has made US yields more variable amid more frequent droughts. The Midwest is identified as the most vulnerable region.
The findings point to growing yield volatility in Midwest corn and soybeans, a structural risk that can support prices during drought years but does not move the market on its own.
today.umd.eduFeb 19, 2019After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
