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TD Securities expects Moody's to release its review of South Africa's Baa3 sovereign rating after the market close on 29 March. TD assigns a 55% chance of an outlook change to negative, which would likely weaken the rand about 3.5%, and a 15% chance of an immediate junk downgrade that would weaken it 8% or more.
A negative outlook or downgrade would likely weaken the rand and raise the local cost of imported feed ingredients, with minimal effect on global commodity prices.
octaafrica.netMar 29, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
