
USDA lowered its 2019 milk production forecast on lower cow numbers and raised its forecasts for cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk prices, while whey prices were trimmed slightly. The all-milk price forecast is $17 to $17.60, roughly steady with the previous report.
Butterfat and skim-solids export forecasts were reduced.
Reduced milk output and higher product prices are supportive for milk prices and could improve farm-gate returns. Lower export forecasts partly offset this by leaving more product in the domestic market.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.