
Incitec Pivot will close its 180,000 tpy Portland, Victoria single super phosphate plant in May and consolidate output at Geelong. Drought in eastern Australia cut its fertilizer sales by about 200,000 t in the first half of fiscal 2019, and a flood-damaged rail line continues to disrupt the Phosphate Hill plant.
Closing a plant reduces demand for imported phosphate rock and sulphuric acid, which is bearish for phosphate rock at the margin. Overcapacity in SSP is the main cause, so the effect on global prices is limited.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.