Asian currency markets were calm on Monday as Japan began a week of holidays, leaving investors on the sidelines. Attention turned to the Federal Reserve policy meeting, US jobs data, and March core PCE inflation, which was expected to slow further.
Softer US inflation raises odds of Fed rate cuts, which tends to weigh on the dollar and can support dollar-priced commodities; for feed buyers the effect on grain and meal prices is indirect.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.