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Reuters analyst John Kemp reports that gasoil traders expect European middle distillate markets to stay well supplied until late 2019. Calendar spreads are in contango through October before shifting to backwardation from November as IMO fuel rules take effect.
A shift to backwardation from November would signal tightening diesel stocks and firmer prices into winter. Until then, ample supply keeps diesel costs contained.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.