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CBOT wheat futures have traded sideways in a 456 to 471 US cents per bushel range for four weeks after recovering from March lows. Markets are ignoring late US spring storms and dryness building in parts of Europe, as traders assume stocks are sufficient.
Lack of a weather premium keeps wheat prices range-bound, but any confirmed European drought could quickly tighten supplies and lift prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.