Russian Energy Minister Novak reportedly told Saudi counterpart al-Falih he cannot guarantee extending the OPEC+ cut agreement through year-end and may only extend to September. Brent and WTI rose in the first quarter, helped by the cuts and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
Risk that OPEC+ cuts end early points to rising supply later, which would weigh on crude and reduce energy and biofuel input costs.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.