
A University of Wisconsin outlook reports that US milk production grew less than 1% from late 2018 into 2019, with March output down 0.6% year on year. Dairy product output and stocks have tightened, with butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk production down, and prices are expected to keep strengthening through the year.
Tighter milk supply and firming dairy product prices point to higher Class III and Class IV milk prices, which support dairy herd economics and the value of dairy-related feed demand.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.