The US Grains Council said the US-China trade war is costing the ethanol industry about 10 cents per gallon in crush margins. It estimated the US could supply about 90% of China's import demand without the tariff.
Margins would widen once ethanol exports to China resume.
Lost Chinese ethanol demand reduces processing margins and the corn volume ethanol plants buy, which is bearish for corn. Resumption of exports would reverse that pressure.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.