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Westpac strategist Richard Franulovich says the AUD, NZD and CAD have diverged from commodity prices, with commodities supportive while yield spreads against the US are at record lows. He attributes the terms-of-trade gains partly to supply disruptions in iron ore and oil.
Commodity-currency divergence signals that currency moves may not follow commodity strength, which matters for exporters of grains and oilseeds priced in those currencies.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.