
Rising floodwaters on the Mississippi stopped vessel traffic at St. Louis as of May 3, with forecasts showing levels staying above 38 feet until mid-May. No grain traffic had moved through Lock and Dam 15 year to date.
Year-to-date rail grain deliveries to the Gulf were 102 percent higher than a year earlier.
Stopped barge traffic forces grain onto rail and raises transport costs, supporting freight-linked prices. Strong rail deliveries show partial substitution, limiting the size of the disruption.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.