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Ceres notes that CME cheddar blocks started 2024 near $1.40/lb versus over $2/lb a year earlier, while butter is higher year on year. Whey prices are expected to stay in a similar range through 2024, with new capacity ramping up and Chinese demand for US whey weighed by poor pork margins and African swine fever outbreaks.
Weak cheese prices and rising whey capacity point to softer US dairy product values, while Chinese feed demand for whey is constrained by disease-hit pork margins.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.