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Rabobank says the Brazilian real has lost about 4% against the dollar over the past twelve months, mostly due to global drivers such as a stronger dollar tied to US tariffs. It keeps a year-end 2019 forecast of 3.70 per USD and warns a weak pension reform could push the real toward 5.0.
Currency moves in the real shift the relative competitiveness of Brazilian grain and meal exports, which can influence world soybean and corn prices. The forecast depends mainly on pension reform outcomes.
octaafrica.netJun 14, 2019After 92 past neutral macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
