
Soybean futures are poised for a smaller gain than corn this quarter as persistent rain floods Midwest fields and delays planting. Hedge funds cut their net-short soybean position by 39% in the week to June 18, while corn's net-bullish holdings reached a one-year high.
Planting delays and likely downward USDA acreage and yield revisions could tighten US soybean supplies and lift prices that have lagged corn, affecting soymeal costs for feed buyers.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.