
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE plan to keep their July production within the limits of the current deal expiring in June, according to OPEC sources. Saudi output was 9.69 million bpd in May, below its 10.311 million bpd cap.
Russia's decision on rolling over the cuts remained the main unknown ahead of the July 1-2 meetings.
Keeping output within quota means no near-term supply increase, which limits downside for crude prices. Energy costs remain a background factor for feed production expenses.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.