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ING cut its 2019 Mexico GDP growth forecast to 0.7% and warned of a sharply higher risk of technical recession. It expects Banxico to cut rates at its 15 August meeting and sees USD/MXN trading in a 19.00 to 19.50 range.
The note also flags risk that state oil company PEMEX could lose investment-grade status.
Weaker growth and a possible Banxico cut would tend to soften the peso over the near term, which lifts the cost of imported feed for Mexican buyers. A PEMEX downgrade could also raise borrowing costs for the sovereign and the company.
think.ing.comGustavo RangelJul 22, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
