
The ECB kept its main refinancing rate at 0.00%, the marginal lending rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate at -0.40%. It said rates will stay at or below current levels at least through the first half of 2020 and that it stands ready to act if inflation stays below target.
A dovish ECB widens the policy gap with the Fed and tends to weaken the euro against the dollar. A weaker euro makes US exports, including feed grains and meal, relatively cheaper for European buyers.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.