
Brazilian soybean prices fell as higher freight rates from Santos to northern China, now near US$40/t, reduced the price buyers could offer. Freight costs rose as iron ore exports and Capesize shortages pushed shipowners toward Panamax vessels.
Higher freight to China narrows the Brazil FOB price that sellers can accept, lowering export parity for soybeans and pressuring soymeal values in the feed market.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 34 past bearish logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.6%), and -1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.