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Oklahoma State analyst Kim Anderson says Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices were around $4.18 to $4.46 per bushel in mid-July and that a move to $5.00 by January has about a one-in-three chance. The main bearish factors are competition from Black Sea exporters, record world production, and weak protein and test weight.
Black Sea export competition and record world supply cap US hard red winter wheat prices, which keeps feed wheat cheap relative to corn for buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.