
USDA ERS expects cow slaughter above 2018 levels, especially dairy cows, and lowered its 2019 live cutter cow price forecast to $52 to $54 per cwt. Steer and heifer carcass weights are down 7 and 8 pounds year over year, and average carcass weights are down 12 pounds.
Heavier cull cow supplies keep cutter cow prices under pressure, and lighter carcass weights reduce beef tonnage, so the net effect on fed cattle prices is limited.
After 144 past bearish report events, LCATTLE moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.