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David Murray's column says US soybean growers face unusual uncertainty as the trade war has cut agricultural exports 6% to $134.5 billion, with the US ag trade surplus forecast at $5.2 billion, the smallest since 2006. It notes China's agreement to buy 600,000 tonnes of soybeans and its exclusion of soybeans and pork from tariffs, while Chinese pork prices have doubled since July due to swine fever.
Persistent uncertainty over Chinese purchases keeps US soybean demand and export prices under pressure, while China's pork shortage supports soymeal demand over the longer term.
hpj.comDavid MurraySep 30, 2019After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
