The offshore yuan fell early on reports of no progress at deputy-level trade talks, then jumped after Bloomberg said a currency pact could be part of a deal suspending tariff hikes. The yuan hit a three-week high amid conflicting headlines, with the PBOC midpoint set at 7.0730.
Swings in yuan sentiment reflect the market's uncertainty over whether a trade deal will be reached, which affects expectations for Chinese farm purchases. The volatility is a sentiment driver rather than a supply change.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.