
US diesel inventories have fallen below their five-year range for this time of year, according to EIA data. Markets expect IMO 2020 to add marine demand for distillates as winter approaches, and a cold winter could tighten supplies further.
Low distillate stocks ahead of IMO 2020 and winter heating demand point to firmer diesel prices into January. Higher diesel costs would raise freight and feed delivery expenses.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.