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The Army Corps of Engineers' Rock Island District plans major lock and dam replacement and maintenance work on the Illinois Waterway, effectively shutting it down next summer from LaGrange to Brandon Road. Officials advise businesses to prepare a logistics plan ready by July 1, 2020, with recovery potentially taking two or more years.
The waterway normally carries about 10 million tons of agricultural products.
A prolonged shutdown would force soybeans and fertilizer onto trucks or rail, raising transport costs and widening Illinois basin basis relative to Gulf prices. This is a forward-looking structural cost that should support barge freight rates and local soybean meal and corn basis.
marinelink.comTom EwingOct 8, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 48 past neutral logistics events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
