Physical crude markets and futures structure suggest a tighter oil market next year despite forecasts of a glut. Premiums for sweet crude are near record highs as IMO 2020 marine fuel rules take effect, and heavy grade premiums are rising due to Iran and Venezuela sanctions.
Backwardation has narrowed somewhat.
Tighter physical crude supports energy costs that feed into diesel, freight and fertilizer pricing for feed producers. The outlook remains uncertain given expected non-OPEC supply growth.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.