
Industry reporting citing the USDA says the IMO's January 2020 ballast water and 0.5% sulphur fuel rules are slowing dry bulk fleet expansion and pushing up ocean freight rates for grain and oilseeds. Carriers are adding fuel surcharges, and rail and truck diesel costs are expected to rise as well.
Tighter bulk shipping capacity and higher fuel surcharges raise export freight costs for US and South American grain and oilseeds. This supports ocean rates and can widen origin-to-destination price spreads.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.