Australian farmer selling has picked up as the 2019 harvest advances in the south, and a stronger Australian dollar has pushed grain prices lower. Drought has cut production in Queensland and northern New South Wales to record lows, while Central Queensland wheat came in near 375,000 tonnes.
Southern Australian supply pressure is weighing on prices, but severe drought in the north limits the downside. Traders are waiting for Chinese demand signals that would support barley and wheat values.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.