
Canada's S&P/TSX index rose early Friday on trade optimism, while U.S. indexes opened at record highs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US-China phase-one deal was finished and would be signed early the following month.
Expectations of a signed phase-one deal support risk sentiment and the outlook for U.S. agricultural purchases by China, a bullish backdrop for soybeans and corn. The equity moves themselves are secondary.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.