Thai rice export prices rose this week to $424-$435 a tonne for 5% broken, up from $395-$420, as a drought threatens future supply. The government introduced emergency measures in 11 provinces, and the dry season is expected to last to April 30.
Vietnamese prices also edged up, while Indian trade was thin over the holidays.
Drought-driven concerns about the Chao Phraya basin crop are prompting speculative buying and stockpiling, which tightens near-term export supply and supports rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.