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Capital Economics says the Phase One deal signed this week includes Chinese commitments to avoid competitive devaluation and open market access for US non-bank financial institutions. It doubts the currency pledge marks a major shift in PBOC exchange rate management.
The analysis suggests limited lasting change in yuan policy, so the currency is unlikely to be a major driver of Chinese farm import demand.
capitaleconomics.comMartin Rasmussen, Julian Evans-PritchardJan 17, 2020After 42 past neutral policy events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
