
Diesel futures and wholesale ULSD prices have fallen roughly 18% since early January, with the CME ULSD settlement dropping from $2.02 to $1.72 per gallon by Jan. 28.
Retail diesel has fallen only about 9.5 cents over the same period, leaving a wide retail-wholesale spread.
A widening spread between wholesale and retail diesel means fleets and feed transporters are not yet seeing the full benefit of lower fuel costs, which can affect freight rates and delivered feed costs. Wholesale weakness tied to demand concerns points to softer diesel prices ahead if retail catches up.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.