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USDA lowered 2019 and 2020 milk production forecasts by 300 to 400 million pounds in the January WASDE, citing slower milk per cow growth. The 2020 Class III average estimate was cut 30 cents to $17.35 per cwt.
Reduced milk output forecasts tighten dairy supply and point to firmer milk prices, which can support feed demand for dairy operations.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.