The AHDB weekly report says global grain futures fell last week on competitive Black Sea supplies, large Australian crop forecasts and recession fears. The December USDA WASDE cut 2022/23 world wheat supplies by 2.1Mt to 780.6Mt, mainly on Argentina and Canada, and maize production was also revised down.
Heavier Black Sea and Australian supply pressures feed-grain prices, while downward USDA production revisions give some support to wheat and maize used in feed rations.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.