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Seeking Alpha analysis says Mosaic's phosphate prices recovered over 10% this year on producer curtailments and late-fall applications. The author expects the recovery to continue, partly due to coronavirus-related supply reductions from China.
Phosphate price recovery and China supply risk point to firmer DAP prices, which raises costs for feed-grain and oilseed producers relying on fertilizer.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.